Singapore revises GDP contraction

U.S. journalist freed in Iran, attorney says

Singapore's economy shrank less than previously thought in the first quarter of this year, suggesting an improvement in economic activity in March.

The country's GDP shrank by 14.6% compared with the previous three months, rather than the 19.7% estimated by the government in April. 

The year-on-year contraction of 10.1% was also an improvement on the previous estimate of 11.5%. 

The government still expects a drop in GDP of between 6% and 9% for 2009. 

"The data should convince sceptics that the most pessimistic scenario has been kept at bay," said Kit Wei Zheng at Citigroup. 

Singapore has been hit by a fall in exports during the economic downturn.

Joke review boosts T-shirt sales

U.S. journalist freed in Iran, attorney says

A T-shirt has become one of the most popular items sold by online retailer Amazon in the past few weeks.

Sales of the kitsch Three Wolf Moon T-shirt shot up 2,300% after a spate of ironic reviews went viral. 

The first review gave the shirt five stars, saying it "Fits my girthy frame, has wolves on it, attracts women" but "cannot see wolves with arms crossed". 

That prompted hundreds of others to post frivolous reviews, turning the page into an internet phenomenon. 

"When I put this T-shirt on for the first time, my wife left me! Thank you, Three Wolf Moon T-Shirt," wrote one wag, while another said that "the Three Wolf Moon T-Shirt gave me a +10 resistance to energy attacks, +8 Strength... and I have successfully solved 7 crimes in my city". 

Amazon's senior manager of community content, Russell Dicker, said the T-shirt was currently the top selling item in their clothing store. 

"The Three Wolf Moon T-Shirt recently moved up 2,300% in sales rank," he said. "We are grateful that our reviewers are so passionate." 

Publicity shy

However, the firm which actually makes the T-shirt appeared less than pleased at some of the comments. 

"The Mountain is a wholesale company and does not sell shirts on Amazon, so this viral assault went under our radar until the shirt made it into the top 10 in the Amazon apparel section," they said in a posting on the Amazon site. 

"We appreciate humour as much as the next company, but we don't approve of some of the remarks. 

"Not everyone can start out at the top and not everyone from our neck of the woods lives in a trailer or cruises Walmart to hook up." 

However, speaking on Radio Five Live, the firms art director - Michael McGloin - said the firm were actually rather pleased with the publicity. 

"We'll take ironic fashion any day.... and we're printing another 400,000 more t-shirts...it's just a fantastic thing," he said. 

This is not the first time comedy reviews on Amazon have gone viral. In 2006, there were more than a thousand reviews for Tuscan Whole Milk. 

They ranged from soap opera-style script - "That was when I knew. He was tired of this life with me, tired of bringing home the Tuscan Whole Milk, 1 Gallon, 128 fl oz" - to stating the obvious: "Has anyone else tried pouring this stuff over dry cereal? A-W-E-S-O-M-E!"

Australia firm takes jobless bets

U.S. journalist freed in Iran, attorney says

Australian betting firm Centrebet has come under fire for offering odds on how many people will be unemployed when official figures are released in June.

The shortest odds are for the country's jobless rate to rise to 5.6% or 5.7%, up from 5.4% in April. 

But politicians and the Salvation Army have slammed the bets, calling them "unacceptable" and "distasteful". 

Centrebet admitted the bets were "socially sensitive" but said they were becoming increasingly popular. 

'Distasteful'

"Taking bets and making money out of the misfortune of the unemployed is as distasteful as it gets," said Queensland state Treasurer Andrew Fraser. 

"I think the people at Centrebet need to revisit this issue and accept that this is an unacceptable practice," he added. 

Brad Halse at the Salvation Army was equally affronted. 

"At the very least, this is extremely distasteful," he said. 

"If they have to frame a gambling market, it is only appropriate that they try and be sensitive to the very real tragedy of the many instances of people losing their jobs and struggling," he added. 

'More popular'

But Centrebet defended the practice of betting on the number of unemployed, saying that punters were quite taken with the new bets. 

Media chief Neil Evans conceded that the issue was "obviously somewhat socially sensitive", but argued that it gave "punters, well away from the usual betting mediums of sport and racing, a chance to play expert in a field that's becoming more and more popular". 

And the attitude of one job seeker helps to explain why. 

"Maybe if Centrebet staff were being made redundant they might change their minds about making light of something so serious," Rebecca Galton told local media. 

"Still, I might place a bet myself. I could do with some extra money right now." 

The Australian economy is facing a sharp recession as demand for commodities like iron and copper have slumped. 

The Australian central bank has already cut interest rates to a 49-year low, and the Australian government has pledged a Aus$50bn ($30bn, £20bn) rescue plan.

'One million more to lose jobs'

U.S. journalist freed in Iran, attorney says

Leading economist David Blanchflower has predicted that at least one million more people will lose their jobs before unemployment peaks in the UK.

Speaking to Newsnight he said 100,000 people will lose their job each month "at least until the end of the year". 

He warned we face a "lost generation" of young people if the government fails to invest in the future. 

Mr Blanchflower is retiring from the Monetary Policy Committee, whom he often defied by calling for rates cuts.

Mr Blanchflower on threat of a 'lost generation'

In an interview for Thursday's Newsnight programme, Mr Blanchflower described the current labour market as "pretty terrible", saying: 

"We've actually had the worst month's unemployment figures we have ever seen, the largest increase in a single month, the highest percentage increase in a single month." 

And he warned that the situation was only going to get worse: 

"My view is we're going to see an average of one hundred thousand a month, at least for the end of the year, so unemployment is certainly going to rise by a significant amount, perhaps by another million, perhaps by more." 

Graduates

He said that such dire circumstances needed to be tackled to avoid the creation of a "lost generation" of young people: 


Mr Blanchflower on failure to predict the recession

"We're talking about nearly nine hundred thousand under 25 year olds now and when the class of 2009 graduates, there will be more than a million. 

"This is everywhere around the country. This is not just unskilled people. Its people who are leaving the universities of Glasgow and Edinburgh and London and Exeter. It's a whole generation of people spread across the spectrum who we can't write off." 

'Misread the data'

Mr Blanchflower also told Newsnight that fellow members of the MPC could have forecast the recession earlier, but misread the data. 

"There are some difficulties in actually getting accurate data in a recession. Its hard to seasonally adjust things and get the right data, and get data that, if you like, forecasts thing very well, in the way that it did in benign times. 

"But if you look back now and say what data did we have at the beginning of 2008, the answer is I think that we could have forecasted, we could have looked at the qualitative data. 

"Its quite clear if you look now at the data that if the UK went into recession in about April or May 2008. And it was pretty clear in the data then, people just weren't reading it right," he said. 

US economic outlook 'improving'

U.S. journalist freed in Iran, attorney says

The US Federal Reserve says it is seeing "tentative evidence" the US recession is easing despite cutting its economic growth forecast.

The Fed says it expects the economy will shrink between 1.3% and 2% this year. It had earlier said the economy could contract between 0.5% and 1.3%. 

It also warned that US unemployment could reach 10%. 

But the pace of economic decline was beginning to ease, the Fed said in the minutes of its meeting on 28-29 April. 

"Participants agreed that the information received since the March meeting provided some tentative evidence that the pace of contraction in real economic activity was starting to diminish," the minutes showed. They're saying the recovery itself may not be as robust as what people are talking about 
Doug Roberts, ChannelCapitalResearch.com.


They also said that financial markets had strengthened and there was anecdotal evidence of a pick-up in household and business confidence. 

Christopher Low, chief economist at FT Financial in New York, said the revision to the economic growth forecast reflected the magnitude of the decline in the first quarter of this year when the economy contracted by an annualised rate of 6.1%. 

"The tone of the minutes is a little more optimistic, and the forecasts are a little more pessimistic," he said. 

At the April meeting, the Fed decided to keep interest rates unchanged at its current low range of between zero and 0.25%. 

The Fed's decision to cut its growth forecast tempered recent investor confidence that the economy was beginning to recover from the financial crisis. 

US stocks reversed early gains to close lower. 

"They're saying the recovery itself may not be as robust as what people are talking about," said Doug Roberts, chief investment strategist at ChannelCapitalResearch.com. 

The Fed also left open the possibility of increasing its purchases of mortgage-related and government debt to boost lending and spur recovery. In March, the central bank announced a $1.2 trillion (£843bn) programme to get credit flowing.

UAE pulls out of Gulf union plan

U.S. journalist freed in Iran, attorney says

The United Arab Emirates is withdrawing from plans for Gulf monetary union, dealing a blow to further economic integration in the oil-rich region.

The state said it would be keeping its own currency, the dirham, which would remain pegged to the dollar. 

No explanation was given, but the UAE has expressed reservations about the choice of the Saudi capital, Riyadh, as home for the union's central bank. 

The state is the second of six Gulf states to pull out of the union plan. 

Oman had already said it would not be taking part. 

The other four states - Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain - are committed to the plan, said Mustapha al-Shamali, Kuwait's finance minister.

IMF push for more help for Africa

U.S. journalist freed in Iran, attorney says

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that Africa's economic growth will plummet because of the world economic downturn.

It predicts that growth in sub-Saharan Africa will slow to 1.5% in 2009, below the rate of population growth. 

In March, the IMF was predicting growth of 3.25% but the slump in commodity prices and the credit squeeze were the main factors for the revision. 

The IMF said Africa would need more concessional aid to ride out the slump. 
  Let us not forget the stakes, which given the vulnerability of Africa's population, are higher than in other regions of the world 
IMF managing director Dominique Strauss-Kahn

Zambia's wilting flower exports 


'Innocent victim'

It is a sharp turnaround for the African economies, which had been growing at around 6% per year since 2000, raising hopes that poverty rates could be reduced. 

"In many respects, Africa is the innocent victim of this financial tsunami," said IMF managing director Dominique Strauss-Kahn. 

But he warned that the "depth and breadth of the crisis" and the "unprecedented collapse in world trade" had meant that demand for African exports was "collapsing fast". 

In addition, "although African banks avoided exposure to toxic assets, private capital is retreating, with both portfolio inflows and foreign direct investment drying up". 

And, he added, "let us not forget the stakes, which given the vulnerability of Africa's population, are higher than in other regions of the world". 

More help 
African oil exports have been hit by the sharp fall in prices


The IMF said that Africa would need at least the doubling of aid promised at the Gleneagles summit in 2005. 

"Without additional support, poverty reduction and economic development in Africa could be set back several years and political stability might be endangered in some countries," it said. 

In addition, the IMF is planning to lend an additional $6bn (£4bn) to African countries at low interest rates over the next two to three years, after the G20 increased its resources at the London summit in April. 

The IMF said it was also making its lending programmes more flexible, streamlining its programmes and making the conditions for lending less tough. 

"Fiscal targets have been loosened in 80% of African countries," it said, "giving them more breathing space to deal with the crisis." 

The IMF is now providing emergency support to a growing number of African countries, but it warned that more help was needed. 

"The IMF cannot stand alone. To help countries weather this storm, all development partners need to follow through," Mr Strauss-Kahn said. 

He also said that individual countries should give priority to preserving social safety nets "to protect the most vulnerable from the ravages of the crisis". 

He will visit the Democratic Republic of Congo and the Ivory Coast later this week to discuss measures to deal with the downturn.